Price Estimation of Celsius based on AUM

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CelsiusInvestor
Rank: Carlos Matos
42 posts
Joined 2020-02-12
By CelsiusInvestor on February 13, 2020, 10:02 ET Post #1

Hello,

I am a Celsius Investor from Switzerland. I made an analytical estimation of CEL.

My approach of how to evaluate is based on a few assumptions that I make:

a) I estimate that the AUM of Celsius is going to grow by 500 Million USD each year.
b) Interest for Celsius is always the 5%
c) 80% of Profit generated by Celsius goes to Interest Payment 20% is Celsius Networks Profit which goes to Investors of CEL and buying CEL on the Exchanges.
d) The company keeps growing finding customer and Interest stays around 5%

http://bit.ly/CELPrediction

Based on that Model that I used. What are the conclusions I draw?

1) AUM is the most critical factor in the grow of Celsius, more user means more AUM and more AUM means Celsius Network can lend out more Celsius and earn more profit and buyback more CEL from the market pushing up the price and value of CEL.

At the current Price 18 Cent per CEL we got a fair evaluation of CEL having around a PE Ratio of 10.
Next year I expect the price of CEL to be 18-26 Cent. The Price of CEL will change only if:

a) AUM of Celsius changes drastically (this can change the price in both direction, if the AUM goes faster then expected at 500 Million USD the price of CEL should go up higher, if the AUM grows slower then 500 Million USD per year then the price of CEL should be lower.
b) The Interest of Celsius changes drastically (for example Celsius isnt able to lend out enough of the money they get.
c) I expect the risk as Celsius investor is bigger in the beginning, but also the chance for good returns. I expect the price of Celsius to grow by around 15-60% per year in the first 10 years and after that 10-15% in the next 10 year.

Please let me know what you think of my Price estimation and if you got any question on my Model.

The world needs banking, but it does not need banks. #UnBankYourself
Gruic
Rank: Master
125 posts
Joined 2019-12-15
By Gruic on February 13, 2020, 11:02 ET Post #2

Very interesting. When you say "Next year I expect the price of CEL to be 18-26 Cent", you mean 2021 ? Beginning of 2021 ?

(Love David Lynch btw)

The king stay the king. —D'Angelo Barksdale
CelsiusInvestor
Rank: Carlos Matos
42 posts
Joined 2020-02-12
By CelsiusInvestor on February 13, 2020, 11:02 ET Post #3

[img]https://gyazo.com/7f5eeb83aeed236ea0040bd3d1c106ed[/img]


I added the picture of my chart. Currently we got around 500 Mio AUM and CEL should be worth around 9 Cent. But people already anticipating that we are going to reach 1 Billion AUM end of this year. So people are ready to pay 18 Cent. Once we see at the end of year 2020. People are able to make an evaluation of the worth how Celsius Network is giving out loans and accummulating AUM. If we are going to reach 1 Billion AUM like I predict the price of CEL can be evaluated of around 26 Cent.

The world needs banking, but it does not need banks. #UnBankYourself



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